Research Publications

Lo, Andrew W., Kien Wei Siah, and Chi Heem Wong, 2019, Harvard Data Science Review, https://doi.org/10.1162/99608f92.5c5f0525. ABSTRACT We apply machine-learning techniques to predict drug approvals using drug-development and clinical-trial data from 2003 to 2015 involving several thousand drug-indication pairs with over 140 features across 15 disease groups. To deal with missing data, we use imputation […] Read more

Chaudhuri, Shomesh E., Katherine Cheng, Andrew W. Lo, Shirley Pepke, Sergio Rinaudo, Lynda Roman, and Ryan Spencer, 2019, Journal of Investment Management 17(2), 5–16. ABSTRACT We consider a portfolio-based approach to financing ovarian cancer therapeutics in which multiple candidates are funded within a single structure. Twenty-five potential early-stage drug development projects were identified for inclusion […] Read more

Isakov, Leah, Andrew W. Lo, and Vahid Montazerhodjat, 2019, Journal of Econometrics 211(1), 117–136. ABSTRACT Implicit in the drug-approval process is a host of decisions—target patient population, control group, primary endpoint, sample size, follow-up period, etc.—all of which determine the trade-off between Type I and Type II error. We explore the application of Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) to minimize the […] Read more

Wong, Chi Heem, Kien Wei Siah, and Andrew W. Lo, 2019, Biostatistics 20, 273–286. ABSTRACT Previous estimates of drug development success rates rely on relatively small samples from databases curated by the pharmaceutical industry and are subject to potential selection biases. Using a sample of 406 038 entries of clinical trial data for over 21 […] Read more

Das, Sonya, Raphaël Rousseau, Peter C. Adamson, and Andrew W. Lo, 2018, JAMA Oncology, published online June 2, doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2018.1739. ABSTRACT Few patient populations are as helpless and in need of advocacy as children with cancer. Pharmaceutical companies have historically faced significant financial disincentives to pursue pediatric oncology therapeutics, including low incidence, high costs of conducting […] Read more

Fernandez, Jose Maria, Roger M. Stein, and Andrew W. Lo, 2012, Nature Biotechnology 30, 964-975. ABSTRACT Biomedical innovation has become riskier, more expensive and more difficult to finance with traditional sources such as private and public equity. Here we propose a financial structure in which a large number of biomedical programs at various stages of […] Read more

Montazerhodjat, Vahid, Shomesh E. Chaudhuri, Daniel J. Sargent, and Andrew W. Lo, 2017, JAMA Oncology, published online April 13: doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2017.0123. ABSTRACT Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) currently apply the same statistical threshold of alpha = 2.5% for controlling for false-positive results or type 1 error, regardless of the burden of disease or patient preferences. Is there an objective […] Read more

Montazerhodjat, Vahid, John J. Frishkopf, and Andrew W. Lo, 2016, Drug Discovery Today 21(3), 410-414. ABSTRACT We extend the megafund concept for funding drug discovery to enable dynamic leverage in which the portfolio of candidate therapeutic assets is predominantly financed initially by equity, and debt is introduced gradually as assets mature and begin generating cash […] Read more

Montazerhodjat, Vahid, David M. Weinstock, and Andrew W. Lo, 2016, Science Translational Medicine 8(327), 327ps6. ABSTRACT A crisis is building over the prices of new transformative therapies for cancer, hepatitis C virus infection, and rare diseases. The clinical imperative is to offer these therapies as broadly and rapidly as possible. We propose a practical way […] Read more

Kim, Esther S. and Andrew W. Lo, 2016, Journal of Investment Management 14(4), 87-101. ABSTRACT Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a rare genetic disorder affecting thousands of individuals, mainly young males, worldwide. Currently, the disease has no cure, and is fatal in all cases. Advances in our understanding of the disease and innovations in basic […] Read more